I keep hearing "Deflation before massive inflation"
So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome. It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
Commodities and things people use every day become expensive,
Luxury goods fall in value.
Inflation wipes out all savings, there is often a rush to spend money while it has value. "Bank runs" and "Bank Bail in's" where the bank will limit your withdraws to prop up the bank temporarily. Sure here the FDIC may insure it, but its nothing if your money is losing value by the hour and it takes months to get it actually into your hands. And many countries have issues with a person holding cash..."You're automatically a drug dealer! >your money is now drug money! >Asset forfeiture" ...I cant count how many times this happens.
People yell " physical gold and silver!" ... yeah, those do hold value well, however the gov does tax that at 26-30% when sold, and will often ban its use in dire times. ....huge grey / pirate area.
Mining stock is the same in the tax range, and nearly anything you "resell", imposed taxes and royalties can be added leaving you high and dry.
Precious metal holdings have been banned in the past, even here in the USA...aka Government confiscation.
Nationalization of Precious metals mines have happened.
Edit: I now realize there are many ways stocks can play out.
Real Estate will raise in value hugely, However so will the taxes, longer contracts at fixed rates benefits the lendee.
Things that you use, if you can stock or invest in it.
-I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
-Rotating food stock
-Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
Things that directly pay you back or are insurance. Saving money is making money.
-Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
A cooking gadget vs eating out.
Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
Things that last and can be resold on the street if need be. This list can be huge, you have to balance it with liquidity, what you use but can also sell before it goes bad / fails.
Honestly and unpopularly, Things that can avoid tax when the price inflates out of control and you wish to sell. The numbers can be so distorted in both price and taxing of income. Eggs for instance, in many countries from Weimar Republic of Germany to Venezuela, increased 15,000%+, So that $15,000 egg / $150,000 dozen that you sold from your chickens gets taxed in the highest tax bracket? (which can go into the 90% range if rules aren't changed for the massive inflation) Taxes usually try raising during this and many companies flee the country, add robots / machines, or downsize as the result of more taxes making work and jobs even more of an issue. .. honestly history shows the whole thing being a cluster-duck in so many ways. Alternative currencies pop up, actual trades happen and go unreported, crime even shifts when things get too bad, again with Venezuela, I read that criminals were moving to other countries because the people were too poor to even make anything robbing! You can also have a business where you write off so many things that you would use anyways. The numbers get... err... odd, play the game.
It is usually around 10 years of chaos before things start "stabilizing." and even then, so much damage has occured.
This is a serious thing that has happened to once prosperous people / civilizations in the past...don't think you're exempt, especially when the numbers are at historical limits in many countries. Invest in yourself and what you use regularly.
Help building gaming/work pc for VR/AAA gaming and video editing.
What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
My wife and I play VR games with our HTC Vive pretty often and my Gigabyte Aero 15 laptop has been struggling. Although boy does it do a pretty good job for a laptop. I'd love to have a Beat Saber experience with 0 hiccups and be able to run the Witcher 3 on Ultra without any stuttering. I've also got my eye on Squadrons in VR too. Additionally I'm a video editor by trade and while work provides me with equipment for that, I would love Adobe Creative Cloud to run well on whatever I end up with.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
Let's go with 1,200 USD but I can be convinced to invest a little more if it makes a huge difference. Let's call it a comfy starting point. Mostly I'm just looking for the most bang for my buck, not the latest and greatest. If we come up with a $1,000 solution, all the better!
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
For the purposes of moving forward let's say this week. There's really no rush so I can be convinced to wait if sales or new launches (that make current stuff cheaper) are imminent. I'm open to your suggestions.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
I have a keyboard, wireless mouse, battery backup, and a cheap Acer monitor from 2016. But beyond that I own 0 parts of the pc itself and have no extra copies of Windows lying around. You can include a monitor recommendation if there's a spectacular deal/opportunity right now or leave it off.
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
Southern California, United States. There's apparently a Micro Center an hour south of me, so if it saves on shipping or tax to make that trek and pick all the parts up there, that is an option although a LITTLE inconvenient.
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
Not necessarily using but own: 2016 Acer monitor (nothing special, has HDMI) Anker wireless mouse, generic noisy keyboard from work.
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
I'm too inexperienced to know if this is necessary for my needs or not. I want my games to look gorgeous and smooth. I want my setup to be as quiet as possible. I guess in a perfect world I would want the setup to be as simple as possible so maybe "no" to overclocking? You tell me.
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
My priorities are good graphics, smooth painless experience, in a quiet unobtrusive machine. I'm not coding, bitcoin mining, storing teraflops of data or hacking the pentagon. I'll set up a simple backup solution on an external harddrive for minimal person files.
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
I do NOT need flashy. I don't care about LEDs or little screens in the case. I don't need an elaborate watercooled system (unless you tell me that's the only way to have a relatively quiet PC experience). I guess I would choose smaller and more low profile for a case unless that makes things hotter (read: noisier). I'm a minimalism guy if that helps. Function over form. A window is fine but not important. If color makes no difference, white would match the room better than black. But again, low on my priority list.
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
I guess I do. I'm used to Windows 10 at this point but I do NOT want any extraneous software installed. No bubblewitch or bloatware if at all avoidable. I'm open to suggestions for antivirus solutions
I know just enough about PCs to get myself in trouble sometimes. I can comb through forums to troubleshoot problems, I can install new drivers and but struggle with knowing how to optimize my pc experience. (ie. Why is my laptop so loud right now? Why are these system apps using 100% of my CPU? WHy does this game run amazing one day and terribly the next?)
I can follow directions pretty well and I know that's really all pc building is. Expensive, sharp, electrified LEGO. I used to do basic repairs on apple computers back in the day so I'm no stranger to static free workspaces and keeping track of tiny screws. But even with all that, feel free to treat me like an idiot and walk me through this new world slowly. I'm here to learn and ask questions. Thank you in advance for your help, kind internet person! SomeKindOfRobot
Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!
That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ??? Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth. Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ... . Bitcoin Achievements so far:
It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
"A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
"All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
"Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
"Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
"Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
"Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
"Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
"Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
"Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
"Future us will thank us."
"Give Bitcoin two years"
"HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
"Cut out the middleman"
"full control of your own assets"
"reduction in wealth gap"
"cannot print money out of thin air"
"Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
"If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
"Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
"NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
"I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
"I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
"I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
"I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
"I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
"I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
"I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
"If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
"If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
"If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
"In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
"In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
"Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
"It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
"It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
"Just like the early Internet!"
"Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
"Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
"let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
"My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
"No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
"Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
"Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
"Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
"Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
"THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
"The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
"The bull run should begin any day now."
"The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
"The free market will clear away the bad actors."
"The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
"We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
"We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
"We have never seen something so perfect"
"We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
"We verified that against the blockchain."
"we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
"Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
"What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
"When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
"When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
"Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
"Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
"You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
"You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
"Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
immune to government regulation
"a world-changing technology"
"a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
"To Complex to Be Audited."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at30 grandor more by next Christmas  - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully"u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at$40,000by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of$50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
My wife (32F) is threatening to leave me if I (30M) don't get what she considers help for my depression. This isn't the first time she has threatened to leave me.
This is going to be a long post. I met my wife online 8 years ago. We lived across the country from each other and kept a long distance relationship going well, and go the opportunity to see each other every few months for weeks at a time. We would fall asleep on Skype together every night, text each other throughout the day, and phone each other when we had time to talk or wanted to play games together. In 2013 after a year and a half of dating I asked her to marry me and she said yes. I was overjoyed! I had spent my highschool years as the guy that everyone avoided because my mother had been sending me to therapy for over 10 years for issues that may have been real at the time of my childhood, but regressed as I grew into adulthood. I would routinely take a cocktail of 8 different medications in the morning and before bed, and my friends are the time would better describe me as a zombie over a functional human being. I had issues holding conversation, would regularly space out, could not perform sexually, and could not get good grades in college. After I got married to my wife, we got an apartment together, and I stopped my medication cold turkey of my own volition. I was a new man, I no longer any of my previous issues and I felt free and full of life. I never resented my mother because she only had my best interests in mind, and was not doing sending me to therapy and keeping me medicated for her own peace of mind. My parents gave me a great life growing up and gave me everything I ever wanted, being from an upper class household, they bought me a brand new car for college, anything I wanted growing up, and would support me financially on almost anything I wanted within reason. My college was fully paid for and I went to one of the best private schools in the area while growing up. I had been to every continent in the world, visited tons of grand architecture and theme parks, and seen so many wonderful things, and I was looking forward to sharing that life with my new wife. My wife did not have the upbringing I did. She was the second oldest of 6 children. Growing up, she did not get any luxury. From having to work a summer job to buy her own school supplies and clothes, to dealing with an elder brother that sexually assaulted her every month while her parents slept, to a junkie father that would work odd jobs only to get money to get high, and a mother that worked 3 jobs to keep a roof over her children's head, her child hood was not easy. Her parents got divorced when she was 17, after being together for 23 years. Her father never gave her any love despite her efforts, she would regularly make love notes and lunches for him growing up, only to find them crumpled up and thrown in the trash and never responded to. Her elder brother would force her to give him oral at least a few times a month from the age of 15-16 while everyone in the house was asleep. Her father left and had no contact with her since she was 19, only showing back up in her life for our wedding, just to disappear again. He hasn't spoken to her in 4 years now. Before we got married, I flew out to meet her, and we packed up everything she owned and put it in her car. We drove 2900 miles across the US to move her into our house with my parents, and after we got married, my parents paid for us to get an apartment near their house. We were so happy! After we moved in together after getting married, we both were young, only 23 and 25. We worked fast food and don't have a lot of money, surviving on only a hundred dollars of food a month. But, because we were together, everything was ok. Or so I thought. My wife has constantly struggled with insecurity since we got married. We made sure when we got married that we would keep our finances separate. She was a bad money manager and didn't want to "ruin me" like she had ruined herself. She would break down sometimes for no reason begging me not to leave her, and I have never done anything to make it seem like I was. My parents decided that since I had gotten married and was doing OK, they were going to give me part of my inheritance up front. I took this money to pay off all our debt, I paid off half her student loans, and I would take care of any issues that came up for her that she couldn't handle without complaint. She crashed her car, I helped her buy a new one, she couldn't pay a bill, no problem, I've got her covered. Anything she felt she couldn't handle, I was always right there to support her. Near the end of our first year together, my wife for some reason had reached the end of her rope. If we didn't move out of the big city where she didn't have any friends or know how to get anywhere, she was going to leave me. It wasn't me, but she said was devastatingly homesick, and said she couldn't live here any longer. She had made a real home away from her parents at her college town, and her best friend of 6 years lived there, who had supported her through thick and thin. Despite my aversion to this at first, I could tell that moving back home where her best friend lived and what was familiar to her was important. After 2 weeks of talking about it, I agreed to move with her back to what she considered home. My parents were planning to move around this time as well, as they no longer had any children and we're looking to downsize their home. So, for her, I left my hometown of 25 years, and all my friends that I grew up with. My parents gave me money for us to buy our first house, and another 30 thousand on top. My wife and I found a nice 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home, and bought it outright with cash. Because there was money left over, we used that for moving costs, and I began searching for a job I knew I would enjoy, while living off the interest on my savings. We were working on having a child and I knew that a kid was going to be expensive, so I was trying to make sure we had the money to support our child, and I could still make my wife happy. In 2015, 2 years after we moved into our house, my wife said she was going to leave me again. Despite her only ever needing to pay her bills (she had gotten herself into more credit card debt), despite her crashing another car and me paying a $5,000 down payment to buy her another new one (she had to get a loan out), despite me spending time with her every night and never going anywhere without her, taking her on trips and little date nights to make her happy, she was threatening to leave again. A month after her telling me this, my father passed away from early onset Alzheimer's. I was having a rough few months. We were having trouble conceiving and she was having severe body confidence issues. She was convinced that before I left her for someone else, she was going to have to leave me. Since we had gotten married, she had gained over 100 pounds, and I had never made an issue about it, other than showing concern for her health (her family has a history of diabetes and heart disease). She said that despite me continuing to support her in all her hobbies (she likes dancing and volunteering at the pet shelter), me not having a job was stressing her out because she wasn't sure that I could keep helping her. Despite my reassurances, she believed that I was going to leave her for someone better, and that she needed to leave before I did. No re-assurance I gave her would stop her from believing that I was going to be gone the next time she came home from work. She started self harming. When she was younger, she frequently thought that the reason that her mother was never around, her father left, her brother abused her, was all her fault. Hurting herself made her feel like she was being punished, and that her sins were being forgiven. Her church growing up was very abusive. They would make people stand up in front of the entire congregation and "confess" their sins in front of everyone. When she had premarital sex with her first boyfriend, she almost killed herself after when her mother found out and made her "confess" to the congregation. She hospitalized herself with a suicide attempt after this happened, and has never respected her mother since. I called up our PCP and told her that my wife dseperately needed help. After an appointment, blood work, and a CT scan for the issues with concieving, she was diagnosed with Severe Depression, Insulin Resistance, and PCOS. She was put on medication and around this time I had found a job, so I told her that she could cut back on her hours and I would start helping her with her bills. We also started looking for a therapist for her. She started going to the therapist and she seemed a lot happier. We were having fun with friends again, and she felt like the happy, bubbly woman I married again. In early 2016, we got great news! We were pregnant! Because I was making enough money at the time to pay her bills and mine, she was able to only work 20 hours a week through her pregnancy, and then her job gave her 6 months leave when the baby was due. While she was a few months along, she unfortunately got into another car accident, and so again, I helped her buy a new care, this time a minivan, because she wanted it for our kids. She was going to pay for it again, because she said she was tired of me paying for everything for her again. I have no issues with this as I never have, because whenever I try to pay for something, she doesn't let me. When we had our child, I had saved up enough money to start my own business. Using the money I had saved, I started up a computer system building company, and servicing the local area, I was able to be home a lot more than working my job, and still make the same amount of money. The business started doing extremely well, and I hired a few employees and a friend of mine to work for me, letting me spend more time with my wife and newborn daughter. Then, we started having problems again. My wife was in a lot of credit card debt from not managing her money ($30,000), and she had been hiding it from me. She was having issues breastfeeding our kid and would break down for hours at a time over not being able to do it. She was diagnosed with post-partum depression and started going to a different therapist. I wasn't making enough money for paying for our insurance, electrical, car payments, taxes and the credit card debt she had built up. I was upset, but it's extremely uncharacteristic for me to get mad about money, because I have always had money. I offered to use our house savings (we were saving up for a bigger house to have more kids) and pay off her debt again. She said no. She decided she was going work full time again. I helped her get a debt consolidation loan for her cards, and she began working full time while I took care of our daughter. This was in the beginning of 2017. Towards the middle of 2017, our life was going great. My business had taken off, and I was making $10,000 dollars profit a month. I had gotten early in on cryptocurrency back in 2013, and was riding high on the bull run from Bitcoin. My company made crypto mining machines due to having a ton of stock from system building, and we were selling those for record amounts. My wife had cut down to part time because I could afford the extra to help her bills, and she could spend more time with me and our daughter. Things couldn't of been better. Then in 2018, the crypto market crashed. My cryptocurrency that had been worth almost $500k crashed down to $60k of value in the span of a month and a half. I had to start selling it to pay off debt the company had taken on to expand, or else it was going to hurt me more. But I kept holding onto the majority of it. I kept my business running, but things were winding down because the crypto run was over. We were operating on razor thin margins. In May of 2018, I stopped paying myself while still running the business to make sure I could keep paying my employees. I was still getting a stipend from investments every month in the amount of a few thousand, so I could afford to not pay myself. I was still taking care of my daughter, but my wife had to go back up to full time. I started looking for jobs, figuring with my 2 associates degrees and my master degree, I could get a good job easy. In the beginning of 2019, I found out my wife had gotten another $25,000 of credit card debt she was hiding from me. She was eating out daily, bringing home for us to eat, and telling me she was making enough money to afford it. She was now up to almost $45,000 of debt, not including her car. I was upset. I told her she can't keep spending money like we have millions. My business wasn't going well, and we needed to cut back our spending so we can get a bigger house to have another kid like she wants. She broke down again. She admitted she had a money management issue. She locked all her credit cards up in the house safe, and she agreed to only spend money off her debit card. Then, the trade wars hit. Our stock account took a huge hit, and because I didn't have strong hands, I sold, at a loss of almost $55,000 dollars. Our stock brokerage trading account that had almost 70k of assets was only worth around $15k dollars. I no longer had the money to cover paying off my wife's debt in an emergency. In April of 2019, we just received our income taxes, due to my losses from last year, and reduced income, we were due back a large amount. I had unfortunately cut down the business to only myself working for it, as the company still had debt that was used a few years ago to expand to pay off. I still have kept the business operating, unable to pay myself for close to a year now, having to sell crypto to cover bills when business wasn't good enough. The first day of May, I took this money and put it back in the stock market, but due to weak hands again, I lost 60% of it again before the markets rebounded. The trade wars had taken a ton of my wealth again. Our brokerage account was now worth less than $10k, and I withdrew the rest to put it into my checking account. Over the past 6 months, I've had to sell off all my remaining cryptocurrency. I have none left. I have to continue running my business in it's dilapidated state, only making enough to pay the bills at the end of the month. I have gotten down to my last $5,000 in cash, and my monthly inheritance stipend, barely pays the bills for the house. All of the money my wife makes goes to paying off her credit card debt, her student loans, and her car payment. When she comes home, she sits down and plays video games while letting our 3 year old run wild and destroy the house while I sleep. We are trying to potty train, but that's not going well, and when I'm sleeping, our daughter will routinely use the bathroom on the floor then smear it on the walls. My wife will not always notice, and I will wake up having to clean up shit off the walls. I have been breaking down nonstop. I cannot handle the level of stress I have been having. I have interviewed for 12 jobs in the past 6 months, and not gotten hired. I have applied to over 30. I have lost over $100k of our savings in the past year alone. I never get to see my wife because when she is working, I have to take care of our daughter, and when she gets home, I have to sleep so I can make sure I'm able to work while they are sleeping, because I am unable to work while they're both awake. I make it a priority to make sure I spend a few hours with my wife and daughter a day, so they have time with me. My wife has not been a responsible adult for months now. She doesn't do her small part of the chores, which is simply do the laundry every week. Every week I take out the trash, clean up the yard, do all the dishes, cook dinner daily, vacuum the house daily, clean up my daughters shit and piss off the floor daily, clean up the mess that my daughter makes when she's playing. We recently found out my daughter is going to need speech therapy. Our house looks like a disaster zone. Our PCP said the speech therapist will come to our house to make it a more "secure environment" for our daughter to get help in. I'm terrified that we're going to get social services called for the state of our house and lose our daughter, but I physically cannot keep up with keeping it clean by myself, because every time I clean something, something else gets destroyed because my wife doesn't watch our daughter. My wife will throw trash on the floor in the house. She won't pick up dishes. She won't clean up the toys or help our daughter do that when I'm sleeping. There is shit caked on the wall in the nursery because almost every day I can't find it all and clean it all up when my daughter is awake. I cracked. I cursed at her for the first time in my life. She broke down, she said she's been so stressed and she's trying. I understand how it is to be stressed, I'm stressed too, but I said we need to try harder for our daughter. I told her I don't want to lose her. Then 2 weeks ago, a text sent late. I'm sure everyone heard about the Verizon bug where texts got send late. You can read about it https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/7/20953422/text-messages-delayed-received-overnight-valentines-day-delay I had an old text get sent that said "Do you still need me?" My wife thought I was going to commit suicide. She said that if I don't get help she's going to leave me and take our daughter with her. She didn't believe me when I showed her the text issue. She says I've been having depression issues for months, and that she's been asking me to get help. She said her therapist has been telling her for months that I need to go get help, and that the idea to threaten to leave me was her THERAPIST'S IDEA, because that threat has MOTIVATED ME BEFORE. This made me extremely upset. I tell her the same thing I did every time, unless they are going to give me a well paying job or hand me a million dollars, therapy is not going to help me. But I need advice. I love my wife. I have no reason to leave her. In the almost 8 years we've been married, I've never told her I was going to leave her. I pointed this out to her, she still says she can't trust me when I tell her that. I told her why am I being punished for her insecurity. I have done nothing but try to give her a great life. Yes, we've been having a hard time with money for the past year, and I've been very frustrated, but all couples have issues throughout their relationships. She says she doesn't want our daughter growing up hearing her daddy talk about suicide and her maybe hear that. I'm just trying to figure out how to handle this. I have friends telling me I should leave her. I don't see why I should. I love my wife. I would never leave her, and I feel like now she needs help again. She has gotten happier in person or at least it seems so, but her therapist telling her to threaten me to make me take action seems like a flag for her therapist. But she likes her therapist and likely wouldn't listen if I asked her to find a new one. I asked her to get therapy when she was severely depressed because she didn't seem like the woman I fell in love with anymore. Maybe part of her has come back, but the woman I fell in love with wouldn't be so irresponsible with our daughter, and wouldn't ignore her chores like she does. I just don't know what to do. I'm scheduled to see our PCP in Janurary for depression, but I don't think it's going to go like she expects, and she hasn't set any expectations of what she's expecting me to get out of this. She says I'm not the man she married any more, but of course I'm not when I'm broke and at the end of my rope with trying to find a job. I feel like anyone would be frustrated and upset if they were in the same position as me. Every day I wake up, work for my failing business that doesn't pay me, take care of my toddler while my wife works, and never get to do anything fun with my family because we have no money and no one will hire me. I just don't know what to do. I don't want to lose my wife. I have sacrificed so much for her. I want to make her happy. I want my daughter to not have a broken family like my wife had and grow up happy. After her threatening to leave me again, it feels like she doesn't need me anymore. It hurts me severely that she can say that so easily after everything I have done for her. I know she is stressed, and I feel like her saying she's going to leave me helps her cope somehow. I'm resenting her still seeing the same therapist, giving her advice on her home life off my wife's singular perspective. I just don't know what to think anymore. I want to make the people I love happy.
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
Almost every time predictions are mentioned, someone will mention Time Traveler (see above link). I still see Time Traveler being mentioned in Bitcoin quite often. eg. yesterday. Butter's thinks time traveller is really a time traveller, a genius, a prophet .... But how accurate were his predictions ?? This prediction was completely wrong (and beyond delusional) because Bitcoin first reached $1000 on 27-Nov-2013 (CMC), and even 6 years later there's no sign of any of this non-sense:
"What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar, services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king."
This prediction is technically wrong because the highest price reached in 2015 was $495.56 according to CMC. Yes, Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014, but that's NOT what the prediction says. However, I'm happy to give this a "pass" because Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014:
"1,000 dollar in 2015",
This was correct:
"10,000 in 2017"
Going to sure be interesting to see how these pan out (hint: not going to happen):
"100,000 in 2019"
"1,000,000 in 2021"
And as for this delusional rubbish after the last prediction (so 2022 onwards):
2022-> "From here onwards, there's no good way of expressing its value in dollars, as the dollar is no longer used, nor is any central bank issued currency for that matter. There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency."
2022-> "In my world, soon to be your world, most governments no longer exist, as Bitcoin transactions are done anonymously and thus most governments can enforce no taxation on their citizens. Most of the success of Bitcoin is due to the fact that Bitcoin turned out to be an effective method to hide your wealth from the government. Whereas people entering "rogue states" like Luxemberg, Monaco and Liechtenstein were followed by unmanned drones to ensure that governments know who is hiding wealth, no such option was available to stop people from hiding their money in Bitcoin."
2022-> ".... our society has no economic growth either, as people know their 0.01 Bitcoin will be enough to last them a lifetime."
2022-> "Most people who own any significant amount of Bitcoin no longer speak to their families and lost their friends, because they had to change their identities."
So basically no governments, no taxes, no economic growth, and Butter's is king and never has to work. And on and on it goes .... the rest of his post of rambling non-sense .... all hogwash and the dreams of a desperate bagholder.
BITCOIN DIVORCE – BITCOIN CORE VS BITCOIN CASH EXPLAINED
Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are confusing, especially to newbies. They are likely unaware of the history and reasoning for the existence of these two coins. This ignorance is likely persisted by the censorship practised at bitcoin and Bitcointalk.org for several years. (rbitcoinbanned includes examples of the censoring.) Most of the following is an explanation of the history of Bitcoin, when there was only one Bitcoin. Then it explains the in-fighting and why it forked into two Bitcoins: 1) Bitcoin Legacy and 2) Bitcoin Cash, which happens in the last section (THE DIVORCE). Feel free to suggest edits or corrections. Later, I will publish this on Medium as well. BITCOIN WAS AN INSTRUMENT OF WAR For Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator, and the initial supporters, Bitcoin was more than just a new currency. It was an instrument of war. Who are they fighting against? The government and central banks. There is an abundance of evidence of this, starting with Satoshi Nakamoto’s original software. BATTLE FOR ONLINE GAMBLING Governments around the world ban online gambling by banning their currency from being used as payment. The original Bitcoin software included code for Poker. Yes, Poker. Here is the original code: https://github.com/trottieoriginal-bitcoin/blob/mastesrc/uibase.cpp Search for “Poker”, “Deal Me Out”, “Deal Hand”, “Fold”, “Call”, “Raise”, “Leave Table”, “DitchPlayer”. Bitcoin gave the middle finger to the government and found a way to get around their ban. In the initial years, it was mainly gambling operators that used Bitcoin, such as SatoshiDice. Was this a coincidence? Gambling is one of the best, if not, the best application for Bitcoin. It was no wonder that gambling operators embraced Bitcoin, including gambling mogul Calvin Ayre. Bitcoin enabled people to rebel against the government in other ways as well, such as Silk Road, which enabled people to buy and sell drugs. ANTI-GOVERNMENT LIBERTARIANS AND CYPHERPUNKS Libertarians seek to maximize political freedom and autonomy. They are against authority and state power. Cypherpunks are activists advocating widespread use of cryptography as a route to social and political change. Their common thread is their dislike for the government. Bitcoin was created by libertarians and cypherpunks. Satoshi Nakamoto used cryptography mailing lists to communicate with other cypherpunks such as Wei Dai. Satoshi Nakamoto wrote:
“It’s very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint if we can explain it properly. I’m better with code than with words though.”
Satoshi Nakamoto was rebellious to government control. Someone argued with Satoshi by stating: “You will not find a solution to political problems in cryptography.” Satoshi replied:
"Yes, but we can win a major battle in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years. Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure P2P networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own.”
Nakamoto was critical of the central bank. He wrote:
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts.”
It is no wonder that the first supporters of Bitcoin were libertarians as well, who agreed with Satoshi’s ideology and saw the potential of Bitcoin to fulfill their ideology. One of the biggest benefits that Bitcoin supporters want, is “censorship resistance”. What does this mean? It means: to be able to spend your money any way you want. It means: how to get around government regulations and bans. It means: how to do something despite the government. Roger Ver, an early Bitcoin supporter, heavily criticizes the government for engaging in wars around the world that kills civilians and children. When he ran as a Libertarian candidate in an election against the Republicans and Democrats, he criticized the ATF and FBI for murdering children in their raid in Waco, Texas. At the time, Ver and many other merchants were selling fireworks on eBay without a license. The ATF charged Ver and sent him to prison, but did not charge any of the other merchants. (https://youtu.be/N6NscwzbMvI?t=47m50s) This must have angered Ver a lot. Since then, Ver has been on a mission to weaken and shrink the government. When he learned about Bitcoin in February 2011, he saw it as his weapon to accomplish his goal…his instrument of war. Ver was already a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. He sold his company, bought Bitcoins and was the first to invest in Bitcoin startups, such as Bitpay, Blockchain.info, Kraken, Bitcoin.com, Bitcoinstore.com and others. Then he worked full-time to promote Bitcoin. Bitpay became the largest Bitcoin payment processor. Blockchain.info became the largest provider of Bitcoin wallets. Much of the growth of Bitcoin since 2011 can be attributed to Ver's companies. More evidence of Ver’s anti-government sentiment emerged when he recently announced that he is working to create a society with no government at all (FreeSociety.com). HOW TO WIN THE WAR To win the war, Bitcoin must be adopted and widely used by the masses. When people use Bitcoin instead of their national fiat currency, the government becomes weaker. The government can no longer do the following:
steal wealth from its citizens by printing money (When a government prints money, it is no different than when a criminal counterfeits money. Both are stealing wealth from the other people holding the same currency.)
tax wherever it pleases (and then squander the money or spend it on activities that the population does not agree with, such as wars)
continue exploding the size of government
It is not only important to get the masses to adopt Bitcoin, but it is also important to get them to adopt it quickly. If it takes a long time, governments will have more time to think twice about allowing Bitcoin to exist and will have more justifications to ban it. They can claim that Bitcoin is used for ransomware, terrorism, etc. If Bitcoin is adopted by the masses to buy everyday goods, such as food and clothing, then it will be harder for them to stop it. IS BITCOIN WINNING? Yes and no. Bitcoin has definitely become more popular over the years. But, it is not achieving Satoshi Nakamoto’s goals. Satoshi defined Bitcoin and his goal. The title of his white paper is:
“Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”
Is Bitcoin being used as cash? Unfortunately, it is not. It is being used as a store of value. However, the title of Satoshi’s white paper was not:
“Bitcoin: A Store of Value”
There is utility in having a store of value, of course. People need it and Bitcoin has superior features to gold. Therefore, it is likely that Bitcoin can continue gaining in popularity and price as it continues to compete and take market share away from gold. However, both gold and Bitcoin are not being used as currency. If Bitcoin does not replace fiat currencies, will it weaken governments? No, because no matter how many people buy gold or Bitcoin (as a store of value), they do not weaken governments. To do so, Bitcoin must replace fiat currencies. BITCOIN LOSING TO FIAT In the initial years, Bitcoin was taking market share from fiat currencies. But, in the past year, it is losing market share. Dell, Wikipedia and airlines have stopped accepting bitcoin. SatoshiDice and Yours switched to Bitcoin Cash. According to Businessinsider:
"Out of the leading 500 internet sellers, just three accept bitcoin, down from five last year.”
Why is Bitcoin losing market share to fiat? According to Businessinsider:
“when they do try to spend it, it often comes with high fees, which eliminates the utility for small purchases, or it takes a long time to complete the transaction, which could be a turn-off.”
Why are there high fees and long completion times? Because of small blocks. SCALING DEBATE – THE BIG MARITAL FIGHT Why isn't the block size increased? Because Core/Blockstream believes that big blocks lead to centralization to fewer people who can run the nodes. They also believe that off-chain solutions will provide faster and cheaper transactions. There are advocates for bigger blocks, but because Core/Blockstream control the software, Bitcoin still has the original, one megabyte block since 8 years ago. (Core developers control Bitcoin’s software and several of the key Core developers are employed by Blockstream, a private, for-profit company.) Businesses, users and miners have asked for four years for the block size to be increased. They point out that Satoshi has always planned to scale Bitcoin by increasing the block size. For four years, Core/Blockstream has refused. The Bitcoin community split into two factions:
Small Blockers, who did not want to increase the block size
They truly believe that big blocks means that fewer people would be able to run full nodes, which would lead to centralization and that the best roadmap is with off-chain solutions. (However, since 2009, hard disk space has exploded. A 4TB disk costs $100 and can store 10 years of blocks. This price is the equivalent to a handful of Bitcoin transaction fees. Also, Satoshi never planned on having every user run full nodes. He envisioned server farms. Decentralization is needed to achieve censorship-resistance and to make the blockchain immutable. This is already accomplished with the thousands of nodes. Having millions or billions of nodes does not increase the censorship-resistance and does not make the blockchain more immutable.)
Blockstream wants small blocks, high fees and slow confirmations to justify the need for their off-chain products, such as Liquid. Blockstream sells Liquid to exchanges to move Bitcoin quickly on a side-chain. Lightning Network will create liquidity hubs, such as exchanges, which will generate traffic and fees for exchanges. With this, exchanges will have a higher need for Liquid. This is the only way that Blockstream will be able to repay the $76 million to their investors.
They propose moving the transactions off the blockchain onto the Lightning Network, an off-chain solution. By doing so, there is a possibility of being regulated by the government (see https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/7gxkvj/lightning_hubs_will_need_to_report_to_irs/). One of Blockstream’s investors/owners is AXA. AXA’s CEO and Chairman until 2016 was also the Chairman of Bilderberg Group. The Bilderberg Group is run by politicians and bankers. According to GlobalResearch, Bilderberg Group wants “a One World Government (World Company) with a single, global marketplace…and financially regulated by one ‘World (Central) Bank’ using one global currency.” Does Bilderberg see Bitcoin as one component of their master plan?
They do not like the fact that most of the miners are in China. In this power-struggle, they would like to take away control and future revenues from China, by scaling off-chain.
Richard Heart gives his reasons why block size should not be increased, in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2941&v=iFJ2MZ3KciQ He cites latency as a limitation and the reason for doing off-chain scaling. However, latency has been dramatically reduced since 2009 when Bitcoin started with 1MB blocks. Back then, most residential users had 5-10 Mbps internet speed. Now, they have up to 400 Mbps up to 1 Gbps. That’s a 40 to 200X increase. Back in 2009, nobody would’ve thought that you can stream 4k videos. He implies that 10 minute intervals between block creations are needed in order for the blocks to sync. If internet speed has increased by 40-200X, why can’t the block size be increased? He claims that bigger blocks make it more difficult for miners to mine the blocks, which increases the chances of orphaned blocks. However, both speeds and the number of mining machines have increased dramatically, causing hashing power on the network to exponentially increase since 2009. This will likely continue increasing in the future. Richard says that blocks will never be big enough to do 2,000 transactions per second (tps). He says that all of the forks in the world is only going to get 9 tps. Since his statement, Peter Rizun and Andrew Stone have shown that a 1 core CPU machine with 3 Mbps internet speed can do 100 tps. (https://youtu.be/5SJm2ep3X_M) Rizun thinks that visa level (2,000 tps) can be achieved with nodes running on 4-core/16GB machines, bigger blocks and parallel processing to take advantage of the multiple CPU cores. Even though Rizun and Stone are showing signifiant increases in tps with bigger blocks, the big blockers have never been against a 2nd layer. They’ve always said that you can add a 2nd layer later. CORE/BLOCKSTREAM VS MINERS According to Satoshi, Bitcoin should be governed by those with the most hashing power. One hash, one vote. However, Core/Blockstream does not agree with this. Due to refusals for four years to increase block size, it would seem that Core/Blockstream has been able to wrestle control away from miners. Is this because they want control? Is this because they don’t want the Chinese to have so much, or any, control of Bitcoin? Is this because they prefer to eventually move the revenue to the West, by moving most of the transactions off chain? DIFFERENT AGENDAS It would seem that Businesses/Users and Core/Blockstream have very different agendas. Businesses/Users want cheap and fast transactions and see this as an immediate need. Core/Blockstream do not. Here are some quotes from Core/Blockstream:
Greg Maxwell: "I don't think that transaction fees mattering is a failing-- it's success!” Greg Maxwell: "fee pressure is an intentional part of the system design and to the best of the current understanding essential for the system's long term survial. So, uh, yes. It's good." Greg Maxwell: "There is a consistent fee backlog, which is the required criteria for stability.” Peter Wuille: "we - as a community - should indeed let a fee market develop, and rather sooner than later” Luke-jr: "It is no longer possible to keep fees low.” Luke-jr: "Just pay a $5 fee and it'll go through every time unless you're doing something stupid.” Jorge Timón: "higher fees may be just what is needed” Jorge Timón: "Confirmation times are fine for those who pay high fees.” Jorge Timón: “I think Adam and I agree that hitting the limit wouldn't be bad, but actually good for an young and immature market like bitcoin fees.” Mark Friedenbach: "Slow confirmation, high fees will be the norm in any safe outcome." Wladimir J. van der Laan: “A mounting fee pressure, resulting in a true fee market where transactions compete to get into blocks, results in urgency to develop decentralized off-chain solutions.” Greg Maxwell: “There is nothing wrong with full blocks, and blocks have been “full” relative to what miners would produce for years. Full blocks is the natural state of the system” Wladimir J. van der Laan: “A mounting fee pressure, resulting in a true fee market where transactions compete to get into blocks, results in urgency to develop decentralized off-chain solutions. I'm afraid increasing the block size will kick this can down the road and let people (and the large Bitcoin companies) relax”
Why don’t Core/Blockstream care about cheap and fast transactions? One possible reason is that they do not use Bitcoin. They might own some, but they do not spend it to buy coffee and they do not use it to pay employees. They aren’t making hundreds of transactions per day. They do not feel the pain. As engineers, they want a technical utopia. Businesses/Users on the other hand, feel the pain and want business solutions. An analogy of this scaling debate is this: You have a car that is going 50 kph. The passengers (Bitcoin users) want to go 100 kph today, but eventually in the future, they want to go 200 kph. The car is capable of going 100 kph but not 200 kph. Big blockers are saying: Step on the accelerator and go 100 kph. Small blockers are saying: Wait until we build a new car, which will go 200 kph. Meanwhile, the passengers are stuck at 50 kph. Not only do Big blockers think that the car can simply go faster by stepping on the accelerator, they have already shown that the car can go even faster by adding a turbocharger (even bigger blocks) and making sure that every cylinder is firing (parallel process on multiple CPU cores). In addition, they are willing to use the new car if and when it gets built. CORE/BLOCKSTREAM VS USERS If you watch this debate from 2017-02-27 (https://youtu.be/JarEszFY1WY), an analogy can be made. Core/Blockstream is like the IT department and Bitcoin.com (Roger Ver and Jake Smith) is like the Sales/Marketing department (users). Core/Blockstream developers hold, but do not use Bitcoin. Blockstream does not own nor use Bitcoin. Roger Ver's companies used to use or still use Bitcoin every day. Ver’s MemoryDealers was the first company to accept Bitcoin. Johnny seems to think that he knows what users want, but he rarely uses Bitcoin and he is debating one of the biggest users sitting across the table. In all companies, Marketing (and all other departments) are IT’s customer. IT must do what Marketing wants, not the other way around. If Core/Blockstream and Roger Ver worked in the same company, the CEO would tell Core/Blockstream to give Roger what he wants or the CEO would fire Core/Blockstream. But they don’t work for the same company. Roger and other businesses/users cannot fire Core/Blockstream. Core/Blockstream wants to shoot for the best technology possible. They are not interested in solving short term problems, because they do not see high fees and long confirmation times as problems. BLOCKSTREAM VS LIBERTARIANS There are leaders in each camp. One can argue that Blockstream is the leader of the Small Blockers and Roger Ver (supported by Gavin Andresen, Calvin Ayre, businesses and some miners) is the leader of the Big Blockers. Blockstream has openly called for full blocks and higher fees and they are preparing to scale with Lightning Network. As mentioned before, there is a possibility that Lightning hubs will be regulated by the government. Luke-jr tweeted “But State has authority from God” (https://twitter.com/LukeDashjstatus/934611236695789568?s=08) Roger Ver wants Bitcoin to regulate the government, not the other way around. He wants to weaken and shrink the government. In addition to separation of church and state, he wants to see separation of money and state. He felt that Bitcoin can no longer do this. He pushed for solutions such as Bitcoin Unlimited. THE DIVORCE To prepare for off-chain scaling, Core/Blockstream forked Bitcoin by adding Segwit, which I will refer to as Bitcoin Legacy. This is still referred to by the mainstream as Bitcoin, and it has the symbol BTC. After four years of refusal by Blockstream, the big blockers, out of frustration, restored Bitcoin through a fork, by removing Segwit from Bitcoin Legacy and increased the block size. This is currently called Bitcoin Cash and has the symbol BCH. Bitcoin Legacy has transformed from cash to store-of-value. It had a 8 year head start in building brand awareness and infrastructure. It’s likely that it will continue growing in popularity and price for a while. Bitcoin Cash most resembles Satoshi’s “peer-to-peer cash”. It will be interesting to see if it will pick up from where Bitcoin Legacy left off and take market share in the fiat currency space. Libertarians and cypherpunks will be able to resume their mission of weakening and shrinking the government by promoting Bitcoin Cash. Currently, Bitcoin Cash can fulfill the role of money, which includes medium of exchange (cash) and store-of-value functions. It will be interesting to see if off-chain scaling (with lower fees and faster confirmations) will enable Bitcoin Legacy to be used as a currency as well and fulfill the role of money. This is an example of the free market and open competition. New companies divest or get created all the time, to satisfy different needs. Bitcoin is no different. Small blockers and big blockers no longer need to fight and bicker in the same house. They have gone their separate ways. Both parties have want they want. Blockstream can store value and generate revenue from their off-chain products to repay their investors. Libertarians (and gambling operators) can rejoice and re-arm with Bitcoin Cash to take on the government. They can continue with their mission to get freedom and autonomy.
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