The Willy Report: A New Development in the Mt. Gox Bitcoin ...
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Quantitative Hedge Funds: Wall Street’s Own Mt. Gox Willy ...
Volatility and Liquidity: How Bitcoin Compares to its ...
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Transactions per Day (Excluding Popular Addresses)
Transactions per Day per Active Address (Excluding Popular Addresses)
so transactions per user about doubled 3-4 years! Much better than the flatlined "tx's per address" that i reported on my previous posts edit: i threw this together in a rush, but if someone wouldn't mind going through and checking that i read that imgur chart right that would be great. I'll check again later, when i have time edit2: calc for 12/15/2014 =87K trans per day/ 3.8M active wallets = .023 transactions per day per address. Still a rising trend edit3: the above analysis fits only data from pre april 2013 bubble, as I believe the willy bot artificially pumped up the price...My guess: we are on a slow trend back to actual and predicted market caps meeting. That could be either 1) a drop to around $100 in 2015...or treading water in the $300 - $400 range until we reach fair value (anywhere from 2017 to 2023 depending on which model you use..see my comment to this thread below for more details) edit 4 (on 2015-12-16): this is a major edit. Everything above this line remains unedited, but I am going to introduce a second pricing model. This original post used active address and tried to find a relationship between number of unique address and the bitcoin market cap. I still believe this will be the most accurate model in the long term. However in the short run, i think there is a better model. IN a perfectly efficient market, as the price of an asset rises, presumably many of the current holders will begin to sell. If this holds true then the active address to btc market cap relationship should hold up. However in the short term (say next 5-10 years...until 2025) i tend to think that bitcoin isn't all that efficeint. A $1000 per coin price rise may not bring as many sellers as a fully efficient market would imply . I think so many current holders of bitcoin are long term holders waiting for $10K per coin or more. That being said I think a second model, which I'll call a "Flow of funds fair calc" should be used instead. The basic idea is to still use the number of users, but instead of relatiing that to market cap, we are going to relate it to the total number of new coins created in a given period Lets use an example. IN december 2015, there are approx 600,000 world wide users of bitcoin (those holding more than say .1 bitcoin - for further explanation see my previous posts linked in the orignal post). What i did was create a table back to 2009, by month, with the number of users in column A, number of new coins created in that given month in column B, and the implied relationship of "new $ added to the system per user" in column C. Column C basically says, given X users (column A), and the market cap at the time (and again assuming no selling), how much new dollars per new coins was there. If the price per coin remained the same (say $300 per coin), but 100K new coins came into existence via mining, then new $ to the system was 300 * 100K = $30M new dollars. if there were 500K users, then 30M/500K = $60 worth of new dollars per user per month. this $60 is the value in column C. It turns out that over time, column C is relatively stable. In times where it is significantly above $60, (ie 2013 bubbles) is when willy bot artificially pumped up at the price...see my previous posts on why we should ignore these bubbles when making our pricing models (it wasn't true market demand). Here is how that $60 number fluctuated over time. http://i.imgur.com/QAY63Io.png Using this $60 number (like minds can disagree but its generally been historically between $18 and $90), we can extrpolate into the future what the price per coin will be..taking into account block halvings etc as well as estimating future growth rate in number of users (which has also been relatively constant..see my earlier posts for details on user growth rate in the future as well as comments replying to this post). So here is how my new flow of funds calc did in the past in comparison to actual price http://i.imgur.com/uzGuib3.png and here is how both models look going forward assuming a 37% annual growth rate in users and a constant $60 new dollars per user per month number for the foreseeable future http://i.imgur.com/rYjbKED.png so a few things to note. On the first image, you can see that predicted price is fiarly accurate (especially lately in late 2015) and is much more accurate as of late than the original user count to market cap correlation (which calls for sub $100 coins in Jan 2016). My guess is that again, for the next few years (3-10 years), flow of funds will be more accurate as a price predictor...then starting sometime in the 2020s as the market grows bigger and more efficient, and as the fair value is reached in people's minds, then long term holders will begin selling, and the market will even out to more efficient level...you can see that in the future prediction table, the flow of funds looks accurate to about 2030 or so, after which it starts calling for $5M + coins, which is impossible as the entire wealth of the world would have to be put into bitcoin. by 2040, the flow of funds calc calls for bitcoin market cap worth 5x the entire world worth...again clearly impossible The below graph compares the future predictions for both of the models. Again, right now the green line is more accurate, but over time we should approach the red line. Note log scale on the graph below http://i.imgur.com/bPH4rrj.png
#bitcoin calculator #bitcoin converter #bitcoin rate record #how a great deal is a bitcoin #bitcoin existing value #btc value #btc rate usd #bitcoin well worth #bitcoin inventory rate #btc to usd converter #invest in bitcoin with credit score card #one bitcoin to usd #bitcoin value now #bitcoin financial commitment #bitcoin rate now #usd to btc #bitcoin to dollar #bitcoin exchange #how a great ... A single-page blog called “The Willy Report” (removed in the meantime) has recently denounced an alleged plot to manipulate the price of Bitcoin through the use of bots.According to the report, authored by a cryptocurrency trader who claims to have analyzed several trading logs starting from November 2013, a bot named Willy is the one to blame for last year’s wave of volatility. CoinDesk contributor Willy Woo presents an in-depth look at how bitcoin competes against other cryptocurrencies on two important attributes.Volatility and Liquidity: How Bitcoin Compares to its Crypto Competitors written by Willy Woo @ https://www.co With all the allegations of Mt. Gox’s automated trading bot, which has been dubbed “Willy”, algorithmic trading is getting a bad rap. However, using bots to trade on ProfitTrailer – The smart crypto trading bot. Trade automatically using different Exchanges and Strategies in a fast and simple way. The Nr.1 Bitcoin Trading Bot. Cryptotrader allows to backtest and fully automate your ... Zufallsgenerator - Zufallszahlen generieren, zufällige Zahlen, Passwörter und Lotteriezahlen. Zufallsgenerator für Gewinnspiele, Auslosungen und vieles mehr.
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